A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
